San Diego State University Empirical Study of Kroger Company Questions
Sign in for Wharton Data Research Services (WRDS) database:
username: f321sp21 (these are all lowercase)
password: MAECOSpr2021 (all is upper case except the p and r which are lowercase)
Once you log into the WRDS site, please follow the steps below to collect the data.
Steps to collect the Fama French Data
Please follow the steps below to collect this data. The username and password is the given above.
Once you log in using the username and password given in the class lecture and the website provided in the guidelines for the project given on blackboard (Please see the zoom lecture covering the syllabus and course introduction for more details):
Step 1: Go to “Get Data”
Step 2: Go to “Stock prices”
Step 3: Go to “Indices and Factors” and click on “Fama French & Liquidity Factors”
Step 4: Click on “Factors-Monthly Frequency”
Step 5: Under “Step 1: Choose your date range.” Change the cell on the left to “1980-01”. To do this just click on the cell and then keep hitting the left arrow until you get to 1980 and then click on the box that says “Jan”. Repeat these same steps for the box on the right to get to “2017-12”.
Step 6: Under “Step 2: Choose factors for query” and select all circles except momentum. Please also click on the question mark to see the explanation of each variable as it may aid you in providing a brief explanation/interpretation for each variable.
Step 7: Under “Step 3: Select Query Output”, please select “Excel spreadsheet (*.xlsx)” and “None” under compression type and select a date format of your choosing.
Step 8: Click on the blue box “Submit Query”
Once the output is complete a link to an excel spreadsheet will become available. Once you click on this link, it should open up a spreadsheet containing monthly data containing the Fama French factors.
Steps for obtaining company data
For the WRDS site, you would need the ticker symbol for your company and then you would:
1. Go to Get Data
2. Go to CRSP
3. Stock/Security file
4. Go to Monthly stock file
5: Under “Step 1: Choose your date range.” Change the cell on the left to “1980-01”. To do this just click on the cell and then keep hitting the left arrow until you get to 1980 and then click on the box that says “Jan”. Repeat these same steps for the box on the right to get to “2017-12”.
6. Here you need to enter in your ticker symbol (which you can find through a google search, but please let me know if you require any assistance).
7. Under time series information, please only select PRC (which is the price variable)
8: Under “Step 3: Select Query Output”, please select “Excel spreadsheet (*.xlsx)” and “None” under compression type and select a date format of your choosing.
9: Click on the blue box “Submit Query”
Introduction
The Primary goal of the project is for students to gain comfort in using statistical software packages to conduct an empirical analysis of a particular firm. Specific goals are for students to (1) become familiar with sources of economic and financial information and in particular the Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) Database, (2) practice their writing skills, (3) develop hands on, statistical estimation and modeling skills using excel (e.g., data analysis, regression analysis). Please provide explanations for answers to all questions.
FOR THIS PROJECT THE PUBLIC COMPANY TO ANALYZE WILL BE Kroger Co.
USING YOUR WEB BROWSER, ANSWER ALL OF THE QUESTIONS THAT FOLLOW FOR THAT PARTICULAR COMPANY. IN ALL YOUR RESPONSES, PLEASE INCLUDE SOME EXPLANATIONS OF STEPS CARRIED OUT. IT IS OKAY TO WORK WITH OTHER PEOPLE, BUT YOUR EXPLANATIONS SHOULD BE IN YOUR OWN WORDS.
1. Data collection from WRDS database
Using your web browser, please go to the WRDS URL (http://wrds.wharton.upenn.edu) and collect data on the variables for the risk free rate, small minus big, high minus low, and the excess market return for the firm your selected. When you collect the data, please select the monthly frequency and the range spanning from 1980 through 2017. Using your class notes and the descriptions provided by WRDS, please provide a brief description of each variable included in the study. Please save these variables in an excel spreadsheet. Please download and save stock prices for your firm spanning the same period and at the monthly frequency. Please compute stock price returns as the ratio of the change in the stock price for each period with respect to the previous period to the value in the previous period This will serve as the base case from which we will complete the rest of the project.
2. Regression Analysis
For this question, you will need the data analysis tool pack in excel, please download it to your version of excel for your operating system before answering the questions listed below.
- Please, separately, determine the estimated regression line for a regression with the stock return as the dependent variable and the following list as independent variables:
- Excess market return
- Small minus big
- High minus low
- Please determine the estimated regression line with the stock return as the dependent variable and the risk free rate, excess market return, small minus big, and high minus low as the independent variables in one single regression model.
- Which regression coefficients are statistically significant? Is the overall model significant?
- What is the adjusted R-squared for the model? How does it compare to the adjusted R-squared for each model estimated in a? Is your answer to part b different from your answers to part a? Why or Why not?
3. Forecasting
- Using only data covering the period 1980 through 2000, please determine the estimated regression line with the stock return as the dependent variable and the risk free rate, excess market return, small minus big, and high minus low as the independent variables in one single regression model.
- Please use the model to predict stock price return from 2001 to 2017 and compute the root mean squared error using the deviation between the actual stock price return over this period and the model-predicted stock price return over the same period.
4. Discussion
Using your web browser and your own judgement and your class notes, please interpret and discuss the strength of the relationship between stock price returns for your firm and each of the three variables. In particular, please consider whether or not you think that the three variables do a good job in explaining and predicting stock returns for your firm. Please also explain why you think the model produced all results from questions 2 and 3 that it did.
